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Cardiff vs Huddersfield — Championship 2018

Cardiff
Cardiff
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Huddersfield
Huddersfield
11/6/2021ChampionshipChampionship · Round 17Cardiff City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 117+ matches

Cardiff45%
×Draw27%
Huddersfield29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cardiff
1.42
Huddersfield
1.09

Cardiff creates 30% more chances

Season form · 149 home / 117 away

creates per match

Cardiff
1.21
Huddersfield
1.04

allows per match

Cardiff
1.15
Huddersfield
1.64

finishing

Cardiff+0.00on par
Huddersfield+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cardiff ↓

Huddersfield →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Cardiff or draw
71%
Cardiff or Huddersfield
73%
Draw or Huddersfield
55%

Winning margin

Cardiff wins by 2+
21%
Huddersfield wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Cardiff 1+ goals
76%
Cardiff 2+ goals
41%
Cardiff 3+ goals
17%
Huddersfield 1+ goals
66%
Huddersfield 2+ goals
30%
Huddersfield 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Cardiff (draw refunded)
61%
Huddersfield (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cardiff at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.15 · 149 matches

Huddersfield away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.64 · 117 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cardiff attack 1.21 + Huddersfield defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.42

Huddersfield attack 1.04 + Cardiff defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Cardiff scores more
45%
level
27%
Huddersfield scores more
29%

Cardiff at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Cardiff will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Championship: Cardiff 2–1 Huddersfield

Cardiff beat Huddersfield 2-1 in Championship on November 6, 2021.

The match was played at Cardiff City Stadium in Caerdydd.