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Cardiff vs Charlton — Championship 2025

Cardiff
Cardiff
Preview
11:30
Charlton
Charlton
9/19/2026ChampionshipChampionship · Round 8Cardiff City Stadium
Big match
43%
Cardiff
model favours
43%28%29%
1–0
likely score
61%
under 2.5 goals
45%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Cardiff43%
×Draw28%
Charlton29%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cardiff
1.27
Charlton
0.99

Cardiff creates 28% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 32 away

creates per match

Cardiff
0.96
Charlton
0.81

allows per match

Cardiff
1.17
Charlton
1.59

finishing

Cardiff+0.00on par
Charlton+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cardiff ↓

Charlton →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Cardiff or draw
71%
Cardiff or Charlton
72%
Draw or Charlton
57%

Winning margin

Cardiff wins by 2+
19%
Charlton wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Cardiff 1+ goals
72%
Cardiff 2+ goals
36%
Cardiff 3+ goals
14%
Charlton 1+ goals
63%
Charlton 2+ goals
26%
Charlton 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Cardiff (draw refunded)
60%
Charlton (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cardiff at home — creates 0.96, concedes 1.17 · 52 matches

Charlton away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.59 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cardiff attack 0.96 + Charlton defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.27

Charlton attack 0.81 + Cardiff defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Cardiff scores more
43%
level
28%
Charlton scores more
29%

Cardiff at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Cardiff will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Cardiff
WLLWW
Charlton
DWLWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cardiff face Charlton (Championship)

Championship returns with Cardiff hosting Charlton. Match starts September 19, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Cardiff host Charlton at Cardiff City Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.