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Cardiff vs Burnley — Championship 2025

Cardiff
Cardiff
Preview
15:00
Burnley
Burnley
11/7/2026ChampionshipChampionship · Round 15Cardiff City Stadium
Big match
54%
Burnley
model favours
19%27%54%

Even after scoring first, Burnley win only 27%

brightest fact of this match

0–1
likely score
63%
under 2.5 goals
40%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Cardiff19%
×Draw27%
Burnley54%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cardiff
0.73
Burnley
1.44

Burnley creates 97% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 16 away

creates per match

Cardiff
0.90
Burnley
1.69

allows per match

Cardiff
1.20
Burnley
0.56

finishing

Cardiff+0.00on par
Burnley+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cardiff ↓

Burnley →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–116%
0–212%
0–36%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–03%
2–14%
2–23%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Cardiff or draw
46%
Cardiff or Burnley
73%
Draw or Burnley
81%

Winning margin

Cardiff wins by 2+
5%
Burnley wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Cardiff 1+ goals
52%
Cardiff 2+ goals
17%
Cardiff 3+ goals
4%
Burnley 1+ goals
76%
Burnley 2+ goals
42%
Burnley 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Cardiff (draw refunded)
26%
Burnley (draw refunded)
74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cardiff at home — creates 0.90, concedes 1.20 · 41 matches

Burnley away — creates 1.69, concedes 0.56 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cardiff attack 0.90 + Burnley defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 0.73

Burnley attack 1.69 + Cardiff defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Cardiff scores more
19%
level
27%
Burnley scores more
54%

Burnley at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Burnley will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Burnley score first in only 27% of matches
  • Burnley win just 9% of their away games
  • Burnley have won 5 of the last 7 meetings

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Cardiff
WLLWW
Burnley
LDLDL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cardiff face Burnley (Championship)

Championship returns with Cardiff hosting Burnley. Match starts November 7, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Cardiff host Burnley at Cardiff City Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.