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Cardiff vs Burnley — Championship 2025

Cardiff
Cardiff
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Burnley
Burnley
Y. Salech 42'
M. Estève 40'
J. Brownhill 19'
3/4/2025ChampionshipChampionship · Round 35Cardiff City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Cardiff23%
×Draw27%
Burnley50%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cardiff
0.88
Burnley
1.43

Burnley creates 63% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 28 away

creates per match

Cardiff
1.19
Burnley
1.79

allows per match

Cardiff
1.07
Burnley
0.57

finishing

Cardiff+0.00on par
Burnley+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cardiff ↓

Burnley →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–114%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Cardiff or draw
50%
Cardiff or Burnley
73%
Draw or Burnley
77%

Winning margin

Cardiff wins by 2+
8%
Burnley wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Cardiff 1+ goals
59%
Cardiff 2+ goals
22%
Cardiff 3+ goals
6%
Burnley 1+ goals
76%
Burnley 2+ goals
42%
Burnley 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Cardiff (draw refunded)
32%
Burnley (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cardiff at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.07 · 67 matches

Burnley away — creates 1.79, concedes 0.57 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cardiff attack 1.19 + Burnley defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.88

Burnley attack 1.79 + Cardiff defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Cardiff scores more
23%
level
27%
Burnley scores more
50%

Burnley at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Burnley will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8
J. BrownhillBurnleyBurnley · M
7.9

Match Events

19'
J. Brownhill↳ H. Mejbri
40'
M. Estève↳ Z. Flemming
42'
Y. Salech↳ J. Bagan
46'
R. Colwill← A. Robertson
46'
W. Fish← A. Rinomhota
61'
A. Ramsey← S. Mannsverk
61'
A. El Ghazi← C. Ashford
70'
C. Robinson← J. Bagan
72'
L. Foster← Z. Flemming
72'
J. Laurent← H. Mejbri
79'
J. Sarmiento← M. Edwards
88'
J. Worrall← J. Anthony
90+4'
Jeremy Sarmiento
90+1'
James Trafford
90+1'
Lucas Pires

Possession

52%Cardiff

Shots

9Cardiff

Pass accuracy

50%Cardiff

Statistics

CardiffBurnley
Overview
52%Possession48%
9Total Shots12
1.26Expected Goals (xG)1.43
5Corners6
9Fouls7
Shots
9Total Shots12
2On Target5
6Off Target2
1Blocked5
5Inside Box9
4Outside Box3
Passing
52%Possession48%
485Total Passes461
388Accurate Passes372
80%Pass Accuracy81%
Goalkeeping
3Saves1
-0.16Goals Prevented-0.16
Discipline
9Fouls7
0Yellow Cards3
2Offsides1

Match Recap: Cardiff vs Burnley

Burnley beat Cardiff 2-1 in Championship on March 4, 2025.

Goals: J. Brownhill (19'), M. Estève (40'), Y. Salech (42').

Cardiff controlled possession (52%) and registered 9 shots to 12.

The match was played at Cardiff City Stadium in Caerdydd.