Cardiff 1–1 Burnley: Result & Stats | Championship

Cardiff

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Burnley

C. Robinson 90'

N. Tella 48'

10/1/2022

Championship · Round 12Cardiff City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Cardiff32%

×Draw29%

Burnley39%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CardiffExpected goals in this matchBurnley

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.02

1.17

Cardiff

1.02

Burnley

1.17

Burnley creates 15% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 5 away

1.24

creates per match

1.18

1.15

allows per match

0.79

creates per match

Cardiff

1.24

Burnley

1.18

allows per match

Cardiff

1.15

Burnley

0.79

-0.54scores less than expected

finishing

+0.42scores more than expected

finishing

Cardiff-0.54scores less

Burnley+0.42scores more

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cardiff ↓

Burnley →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–113%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Cardiff or draw

61%

Cardiff or Burnley

71%

Draw or Burnley

68%

Winning margin

Cardiff wins by 2+

12%

Burnley wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Cardiff 1+ goals

64%

Cardiff 2+ goals

27%

Cardiff 3+ goals

8%

Burnley 1+ goals

69%

Burnley 2+ goals

33%

Burnley 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Cardiff (draw refunded)

45%

Burnley (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cardiff at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.15 · 10 matches

Burnley away — creates 1.18, concedes 0.79 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cardiff attack 1.24 + Burnley defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 1.02

Burnley attack 1.18 + Cardiff defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Cardiff scores more

32%

level

29%

Burnley scores more

39%

Burnley at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Burnley will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

47

C. Robinson

Cardiff · F

7.9

Match Events

31'

47'

48'

51'

64'

A. Rinomhota← J. Ralls

64'

B. Manuel← J. Guðmundsson

64'

A. Barnes← J. Rodríguez

65'

A. Zaroury← N. Tella

73'

M. Watters← M. Harris

73'

G. Whyte← C. ODowda

79'

J. Simpson← C. Kipré

79'

R. Sawyers← S. Ojo

88'

S. Bastien← J. Brownhill

90'

C. Robinson↳ M. Romeo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CardiffBurnley

Overview

41%Possession59%

12Total Shots8

9Corners1

9Fouls5

Shots

12Total Shots8

4On Target2

3Off Target4

5Blocked2

5Inside Box6

7Outside Box2

Passing

41%Possession59%

376Total Passes570

280Accurate Passes474

74%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

9Fouls5

3Yellow Cards0

3Offsides5