Cardiff 1–1 Bristol City: Result & Stats

Cardiff

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Bristol City

Y. Salech 90'

J. Knight 60'

2/15/2025

Championship · Round 33Cardiff City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 30+ matches

Cardiff39%

×Draw27%

Bristol City34%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CardiffExpected goals in this matchBristol City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.16

Cardiff

1.27

Bristol City

1.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 30 away

1.14

creates per match

1.07

1.24

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Cardiff

1.14

Bristol City

1.07

allows per match

Cardiff

1.24

Bristol City

1.40

+0.03on par

finishing

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

Cardiff+0.03on par

Bristol City-0.10scores less

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cardiff ↓

Bristol City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Cardiff or draw

66%

Cardiff or Bristol City

73%

Draw or Bristol City

61%

Winning margin

Cardiff wins by 2+

17%

Bristol City wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Cardiff 1+ goals

72%

Cardiff 2+ goals

36%

Cardiff 3+ goals

14%

Bristol City 1+ goals

69%

Bristol City 2+ goals

32%

Bristol City 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Cardiff (draw refunded)

54%

Bristol City (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cardiff at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.24 · 30 matches

Bristol City away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.40 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cardiff attack 1.14 + Bristol City defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.27

Bristol City attack 1.07 + Cardiff defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Cardiff scores more

39%

level

27%

Bristol City scores more

34%

Cardiff at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Cardiff will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

M. Bird

Bristol City · M

7.5

Match Events

22'

35'

36'

42'

46'

Y. Hirakawa← S. Twine

46'

S. Bell← M. Sykes

57'

G. Tanner← R. McCrorie

60'

J. Knight↳ Y. Hirakawa

63'

A. Ramsey← A. Rinomhota

71'

C. Willock← A. El Ghazi

71'

Y. Salech← C. Robinson

72'

N. Wells← S. Armstrong

81'

C. Ashford← S. Mannsverk

82'

G. Earthy← A. Mehmeti

90'

Y. Salech↳ C. Ashford

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CardiffBristol

Overview

57%Possession43%

13Total Shots11

1.69Expected Goals (xG)1.10

4Corners5

12Fouls9

Shots

13Total Shots11

6On Target4

4Off Target2

3Blocked5

6Inside Box7

7Outside Box4

Passing

57%Possession43%

459Total Passes347

377Accurate Passes251

82%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

3Saves5

0.29Goals Prevented0.29

Discipline

12Fouls9

2Yellow Cards2

1Offsides4

Match Recap: Cardiff vs Bristol City

Cardiff and Bristol City drew 1-1 in Championship on February 15, 2025.

Goals: J. Knight (60'), Y. Salech (90').

Cardiff controlled possession (57%) and registered 13 shots to 11.

The match was played at Cardiff City Stadium in Caerdydd.

Cardiff vs Bristol City — Championship 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Cardiff vs Bristol City