Cardiff 2–0 Bristol City: Result & Stats

Cardiff

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Bristol City

R. Colwill 90+1'

P. Ng 33'

10/28/2023

Championship · Round 14Cardiff City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 18+ matches

Cardiff36%

×Draw28%

Bristol City36%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CardiffExpected goals in this matchBristol City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.20

Cardiff

1.21

Bristol City

1.20

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 25 home / 18 away

1.01

creates per match

1.03

1.36

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Cardiff

1.01

Bristol City

1.03

allows per match

Cardiff

1.36

Bristol City

1.40

-0.13scores less than expected

finishing

-0.03on par

finishing

Cardiff-0.13scores less

Bristol City-0.03on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cardiff ↓

Bristol City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Cardiff or draw

64%

Cardiff or Bristol City

72%

Draw or Bristol City

64%

Winning margin

Cardiff wins by 2+

16%

Bristol City wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Cardiff 1+ goals

70%

Cardiff 2+ goals

34%

Cardiff 3+ goals

12%

Bristol City 1+ goals

70%

Bristol City 2+ goals

34%

Bristol City 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Cardiff (draw refunded)

50%

Bristol City (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cardiff at home — creates 1.01, concedes 1.36 · 25 matches

Bristol City away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.40 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cardiff attack 1.01 + Bristol City defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.21

Bristol City attack 1.03 + Cardiff defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Cardiff scores more

36%

level

28%

Bristol City scores more

36%

Cardiff at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Cardiff will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

38

P. Ng

Cardiff · D

8.3

Match Events

9'

Robert Dickie

33'

P. Ng↳ J. Ralls

45'

46'

54'

57'

57'

R. Colwill← C. Robinson

67'

E. Yeboah← A. Mehmeti

72'

O. Tanner← J. Bowler

73'

I. Ugbo← Y. Meïté

73'

J. Knight-Lebel← J. James

90+3'

M. Romeo← P. Ng

90+1'

R. Colwill↳ J. Collins

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CardiffBristol

Overview

48%Possession52%

9Total Shots8

0.88Expected Goals (xG)0.95

4Corners3

9Fouls9

Shots

9Total Shots8

7On Target1

1Off Target6

1Blocked1

7Inside Box5

2Outside Box3

Passing

48%Possession52%

386Total Passes421

296Accurate Passes318

77%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

1Saves5

Discipline

9Fouls9

1Yellow Cards2

4Offsides2