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Cardiff vs Birmingham — Championship 2025

Cardiff
Cardiff
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Birmingham
Birmingham
J. Bacuna 45+3'
12/13/2023ChampionshipChampionship · Round 21Cardiff City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Cardiff47%
×Draw28%
Birmingham25%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cardiff
1.37
Birmingham
0.93

Cardiff creates 47% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 33 away

creates per match

Cardiff
1.19
Birmingham
0.79

allows per match

Cardiff
1.07
Birmingham
1.55

finishing

Cardiff+0.00on par
Birmingham+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cardiff ↓

Birmingham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Cardiff or draw
75%
Cardiff or Birmingham
72%
Draw or Birmingham
53%

Winning margin

Cardiff wins by 2+
22%
Birmingham wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Cardiff 1+ goals
75%
Cardiff 2+ goals
40%
Cardiff 3+ goals
16%
Birmingham 1+ goals
61%
Birmingham 2+ goals
24%
Birmingham 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Cardiff (draw refunded)
65%
Birmingham (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cardiff at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.07 · 67 matches

Birmingham away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.55 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cardiff attack 1.19 + Birmingham defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.37

Birmingham attack 0.79 + Cardiff defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Cardiff scores more
47%
level
28%
Birmingham scores more
25%

Cardiff at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Cardiff will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21
J. RuddyBirminghamBirmingham · G
7.7

Match Events

14'
M. Romeo← P. Ng
42'
Ivan Šunjić
45+3'
J. Bacuna↳ S. Dembélé
55'
Yakou Méïté
59'
J. Bowler← R. Wintle
59'
C. Robinson← K. Etete
63'
Siriki Dembélé
75'
O. Tanner← K. Ahearne-Grant
75'
I. Ugbo← Y. Meïté
86'
L. Jutkiewicz← J. Stansfield
90+5'
R. Donovan← J. Bacuna
90'
K. Miyoshi← S. Dembélé

Possession

56%Cardiff

Shots

11Cardiff

Pass accuracy

51%Cardiff

Statistics

CardiffBirmingham
Overview
56%Possession44%
11Total Shots11
0.88Expected Goals (xG)1.65
4Corners3
11Fouls18
Shots
11Total Shots11
4On Target5
7Off Target3
0Blocked3
7Inside Box6
4Outside Box5
Passing
56%Possession44%
507Total Passes412
406Accurate Passes322
80%Pass Accuracy78%
Goalkeeping
4Saves4
Discipline
11Fouls18
1Yellow Cards2
0Offsides2

Match Recap: Cardiff vs Birmingham

Birmingham beat Cardiff 1-0 in Championship on December 13, 2023.

Goals: J. Bacuna (45+3').

Cardiff controlled possession (56%) and registered 11 shots to 11.

The match was played at Cardiff City Stadium in Caerdydd.