Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Cardiff vs Birmingham — Championship 2025

Cardiff
Cardiff
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Birmingham
Birmingham
J. Philogene 17'
8/13/2022ChampionshipChampionship · Round 3Cardiff City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Cardiff47%
×Draw28%
Birmingham25%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cardiff
1.37
Birmingham
0.93

Cardiff creates 47% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 33 away

creates per match

Cardiff
1.19
Birmingham
0.79

allows per match

Cardiff
1.07
Birmingham
1.55

finishing

Cardiff+0.00on par
Birmingham+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cardiff ↓

Birmingham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Cardiff or draw
75%
Cardiff or Birmingham
72%
Draw or Birmingham
53%

Winning margin

Cardiff wins by 2+
22%
Birmingham wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Cardiff 1+ goals
75%
Cardiff 2+ goals
40%
Cardiff 3+ goals
16%
Birmingham 1+ goals
61%
Birmingham 2+ goals
24%
Birmingham 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Cardiff (draw refunded)
65%
Birmingham (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cardiff at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.07 · 67 matches

Birmingham away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.55 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cardiff attack 1.19 + Birmingham defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.37

Birmingham attack 0.79 + Cardiff defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Cardiff scores more
47%
level
28%
Birmingham scores more
25%

Cardiff at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Cardiff will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17
J. CollinsCardiffCardiff · D
7.7

Match Events

17'
J. Philogene↳ C. O'Dowda
46'
M. Harris← M. Watters
51'
Scott Hogan
55'
J. Williams← M. Roberts
63'
R. Colwill← R. Sawyers
64'
K. Etete← J. Philogene
70'
Jordan James
72'
L. Jutkiewicz← T. Deeney
76'
J. Leko← J. Bacuna
76'
G. Hall← A. Chang
82'
S. Ojo← C. ODowda
90+1'
Sheyi Ojo
90+6'
Maxime Colin
90'
Auston Trusty

Possession

57%Cardiff

Shots

16Cardiff

Pass accuracy

53%Cardiff

Statistics

CardiffBirmingham
Overview
57%Possession43%
16Total Shots4
2Corners2
9Fouls12
Shots
16Total Shots4
7On Target0
8Off Target1
1Blocked3
9Inside Box0
7Outside Box4
Passing
57%Possession43%
427Total Passes312
341Accurate Passes218
80%Pass Accuracy70%
Goalkeeping
0Saves6
Discipline
9Fouls12
1Yellow Cards4
1Offsides1

Championship: Cardiff 1–0 Birmingham

Cardiff beat Birmingham 1-0 in Championship on August 13, 2022.

Goals: J. Philogene (17').

Cardiff controlled possession (57%) and registered 16 shots to 4.

The match was played at Cardiff City Stadium in Caerdydd.