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Carapinheirense vs Benfica Castelo Branco — Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group E 2020

Carapinheirense
Carapinheirense
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Benfica Castelo Branco
Benfica Castelo Branco
2/16/2021Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group ECampeonato de Portugal Prio - Group E · Group E - 9Complexo Desportivo São Pedro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Carapinheirense37%
×Draw32%
Benfica Castelo Branco31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Carapinheirense
1.00
Benfica Castelo Branco
0.90

Carapinheirense creates 11% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 10 away

creates per match

Carapinheirense
1.40
Benfica Castelo Branco
0.70

allows per match

Carapinheirense
1.10
Benfica Castelo Branco
0.60

finishing

Carapinheirense+0.00on par
Benfica Castelo Branco+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carapinheirense ↓

Benfica Castelo Branco →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Carapinheirense or draw
69%
Carapinheirense or Benfica Castelo Branco
68%
Draw or Benfica Castelo Branco
63%

Winning margin

Carapinheirense wins by 2+
14%
Benfica Castelo Branco wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Carapinheirense 1+ goals
63%
Carapinheirense 2+ goals
26%
Carapinheirense 3+ goals
8%
Benfica Castelo Branco 1+ goals
59%
Benfica Castelo Branco 2+ goals
23%
Benfica Castelo Branco 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Carapinheirense (draw refunded)
54%
Benfica Castelo Branco (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carapinheirense at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.10 · 10 matches

Benfica Castelo Branco away — creates 0.70, concedes 0.60 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carapinheirense attack 1.40 + Benfica Castelo Branco defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 1.00

Benfica Castelo Branco attack 0.70 + Carapinheirense defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Carapinheirense scores more
37%
level
32%
Benfica Castelo Branco scores more
31%

Carapinheirense at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Carapinheirense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Carapinheirense vs Benfica Castelo Branco

Benfica Castelo Branco beat Carapinheirense 2-0 in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group E on February 16, 2021.

The match was played at Complexo Desportivo São Pedro in Carapinheira.