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Benfica Castelo Branco vs Carapinheirense — Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group E 2020

Benfica Castelo Branco
Benfica Castelo Branco
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Carapinheirense
Carapinheirense
3/14/2021Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group ECampeonato de Portugal Prio - Group E · Group E - 20Estádio Municipal Vale do Romeiro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Benfica Castelo Branco56%
×Draw26%
Carapinheirense19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Benfica Castelo Branco
1.55
Carapinheirense
0.77

Benfica Castelo Branco creates 101% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 11 away

creates per match

Benfica Castelo Branco
1.55
Carapinheirense
0.82

allows per match

Benfica Castelo Branco
0.73
Carapinheirense
1.55

finishing

Benfica Castelo Branco+0.00on par
Carapinheirense+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Benfica Castelo Branco ↓

Carapinheirense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Benfica Castelo Branco or draw
81%
Benfica Castelo Branco or Carapinheirense
74%
Draw or Carapinheirense
44%

Winning margin

Benfica Castelo Branco wins by 2+
29%
Carapinheirense wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Benfica Castelo Branco 1+ goals
79%
Benfica Castelo Branco 2+ goals
46%
Benfica Castelo Branco 3+ goals
20%
Carapinheirense 1+ goals
54%
Carapinheirense 2+ goals
18%
Carapinheirense 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Benfica Castelo Branco (draw refunded)
75%
Carapinheirense (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Benfica Castelo Branco at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.73 · 11 matches

Carapinheirense away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.55 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Benfica Castelo Branco attack 1.55 + Carapinheirense defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.55

Carapinheirense attack 0.82 + Benfica Castelo Branco defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Benfica Castelo Branco scores more
56%
level
26%
Carapinheirense scores more
19%

Benfica Castelo Branco at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Benfica Castelo Branco will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group E: Benfica Castelo Branco 0–0 Carapinheirense

Benfica Castelo Branco and Carapinheirense drew 0-0 in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group E on March 14, 2021.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Vale do Romeiro in Castelo Branco.