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Caracas FC vs Deportivo La Guaira — Primera División 2018

Caracas FC
Caracas FC
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Deportivo La Guaira
Deportivo La Guaira
5/14/2023Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Round 14Estadio Olímpico de la UCV

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 144+ matches

Caracas FC43%
×Draw27%
Deportivo La Guaira30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Caracas FC
1.39
Deportivo La Guaira
1.11

Caracas FC creates 25% more chances

Season form · 144 home / 148 away

creates per match

Caracas FC
1.58
Deportivo La Guaira
1.22

allows per match

Caracas FC
1.01
Deportivo La Guaira
1.20

finishing

Caracas FC+0.00on par
Deportivo La Guaira+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Caracas FC ↓

Deportivo La Guaira →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Caracas FC or draw
70%
Caracas FC or Deportivo La Guaira
73%
Draw or Deportivo La Guaira
57%

Winning margin

Caracas FC wins by 2+
20%
Deportivo La Guaira wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Caracas FC 1+ goals
75%
Caracas FC 2+ goals
40%
Caracas FC 3+ goals
16%
Deportivo La Guaira 1+ goals
67%
Deportivo La Guaira 2+ goals
30%
Deportivo La Guaira 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Caracas FC (draw refunded)
59%
Deportivo La Guaira (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Caracas FC at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.01 · 144 matches

Deportivo La Guaira away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.20 · 148 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Caracas FC attack 1.58 + Deportivo La Guaira defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.39

Deportivo La Guaira attack 1.22 + Caracas FC defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Caracas FC scores more
43%
level
27%
Deportivo La Guaira scores more
30%

Caracas FC at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Caracas FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Caracas FC vs Deportivo La Guaira

Caracas FC and Deportivo La Guaira drew 1-1 in Primera División on May 14, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico de la UCV in Caracas.