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Caracas FC vs Angostura FC — Primera División 2018

Caracas FC
Caracas FC
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Angostura FC
Angostura FC
3/20/2024Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Apertura - 8Estadio Olímpico de la UCV

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Caracas FC52%
×Draw24%
Angostura FC24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Caracas FC
1.66
Angostura FC
1.04

Caracas FC creates 60% more chances

Season form · 144 home / 30 away

creates per match

Caracas FC
1.58
Angostura FC
1.07

allows per match

Caracas FC
1.01
Angostura FC
1.73

finishing

Caracas FC+0.00on par
Angostura FC+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Caracas FC ↓

Angostura FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
28%72%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Caracas FC or draw
76%
Caracas FC or Angostura FC
76%
Draw or Angostura FC
48%

Winning margin

Caracas FC wins by 2+
28%
Angostura FC wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Caracas FC 1+ goals
81%
Caracas FC 2+ goals
49%
Caracas FC 3+ goals
23%
Angostura FC 1+ goals
65%
Angostura FC 2+ goals
28%
Angostura FC 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Caracas FC (draw refunded)
69%
Angostura FC (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Caracas FC at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.01 · 144 matches

Angostura FC away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.73 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Caracas FC attack 1.58 + Angostura FC defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.66

Angostura FC attack 1.07 + Caracas FC defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Caracas FC scores more
52%
level
24%
Angostura FC scores more
24%

Caracas FC at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Caracas FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: Caracas FC 0–1 Angostura FC

Angostura FC beat Caracas FC 1-0 in Primera División on March 20, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico de la UCV in Caracas.