Angostura FC 2–0 Caracas FC: Result & Stats

Angostura FC

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Caracas FC

7/15/2023

Primera División · Round 19Estadio Ricardo Tulio Maya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Angostura FC33%

×Draw29%

Caracas FC38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Angostura FCExpected goals in this matchCaracas FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

1.17

Angostura FC

1.06

Caracas FC

1.17

Caracas FC creates 10% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 146 away

1.13

creates per match

1.22

1.13

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Angostura FC

1.13

Caracas FC

1.22

allows per match

Angostura FC

1.13

Caracas FC

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Angostura FC+0.00on par

Caracas FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Angostura FC ↓

Caracas FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–113%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Angostura FC or draw

62%

Angostura FC or Caracas FC

71%

Draw or Caracas FC

67%

Winning margin

Angostura FC wins by 2+

13%

Caracas FC wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Angostura FC 1+ goals

65%

Angostura FC 2+ goals

29%

Angostura FC 3+ goals

9%

Caracas FC 1+ goals

69%

Caracas FC 2+ goals

33%

Caracas FC 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Angostura FC (draw refunded)

46%

Caracas FC (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Angostura FC at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.13 · 30 matches

Caracas FC away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.00 · 146 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Angostura FC attack 1.13 + Caracas FC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.06

Caracas FC attack 1.22 + Angostura FC defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Angostura FC scores more

33%

level

29%

Caracas FC scores more

38%

Caracas FC at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Caracas FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff