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Carabobo FC vs UCV — Primera División 2018

Carabobo FC
Carabobo FC
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
UCV
UCV
3/9/2024Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Apertura - 6Estadio Polideportivo Misael Delgado

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Carabobo FC48%
×Draw27%
UCV26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Carabobo FC
1.43
UCV
0.97

Carabobo FC creates 47% more chances

Season form · 146 home / 84 away

creates per match

Carabobo FC
1.46
UCV
1.06

allows per match

Carabobo FC
0.88
UCV
1.40

finishing

Carabobo FC+0.00on par
UCV+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carabobo FC ↓

UCV →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Carabobo FC or draw
74%
Carabobo FC or UCV
73%
Draw or UCV
52%

Winning margin

Carabobo FC wins by 2+
23%
UCV wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Carabobo FC 1+ goals
76%
Carabobo FC 2+ goals
42%
Carabobo FC 3+ goals
17%
UCV 1+ goals
62%
UCV 2+ goals
25%
UCV 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Carabobo FC (draw refunded)
65%
UCV (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carabobo FC at home — creates 1.46, concedes 0.88 · 146 matches

UCV away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.40 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carabobo FC attack 1.46 + UCV defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.43

UCV attack 1.06 + Carabobo FC defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Carabobo FC scores more
48%
level
27%
UCV scores more
26%

Carabobo FC at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Carabobo FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: Carabobo FC 0–1 UCV

UCV beat Carabobo FC 1-0 in Primera División on March 9, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Polideportivo Misael Delgado in Valencia.