CAPS United 3–2 Bulawayo Chiefs: Result & Stats

CAPS United

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Bulawayo Chiefs

11/9/2023

Premier Soccer League · Round 31National Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

CAPS United44%

×Draw29%

Bulawayo Chiefs27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CAPS UnitedExpected goals in this matchBulawayo Chiefs

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

0.89

CAPS United

1.23

Bulawayo Chiefs

0.89

CAPS United creates 38% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 80 away

1.22

creates per match

0.81

0.96

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

CAPS United

1.22

Bulawayo Chiefs

0.81

allows per match

CAPS United

0.96

Bulawayo Chiefs

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CAPS United+0.00on par

Bulawayo Chiefs+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CAPS United ↓

Bulawayo Chiefs →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–111%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

CAPS United or draw

73%

CAPS United or Bulawayo Chiefs

71%

Draw or Bulawayo Chiefs

56%

Winning margin

CAPS United wins by 2+

20%

Bulawayo Chiefs wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

CAPS United 1+ goals

71%

CAPS United 2+ goals

35%

CAPS United 3+ goals

13%

Bulawayo Chiefs 1+ goals

59%

Bulawayo Chiefs 2+ goals

22%

Bulawayo Chiefs 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

CAPS United (draw refunded)

62%

Bulawayo Chiefs (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CAPS United at home — creates 1.22, concedes 0.96 · 96 matches

Bulawayo Chiefs away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.24 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CAPS United attack 1.22 + Bulawayo Chiefs defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.23

Bulawayo Chiefs attack 0.81 + CAPS United defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

CAPS United scores more

44%

level

29%

Bulawayo Chiefs scores more

27%

CAPS United at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "CAPS United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff