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Bulawayo Chiefs vs CAPS United — Premier Soccer League 2026

Bulawayo Chiefs
Bulawayo Chiefs
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
CAPS United
CAPS United
O. Chirinda 61', 49'
I. Ali 80'
7/8/2023Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 14Luveve Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Bulawayo Chiefs38%
×Draw30%
CAPS United32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bulawayo Chiefs
1.08
CAPS United
0.96

Bulawayo Chiefs creates 13% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 97 away

creates per match

Bulawayo Chiefs
1.02
CAPS United
1.03

allows per match

Bulawayo Chiefs
0.89
CAPS United
1.14

finishing

Bulawayo Chiefs+0.00on par
CAPS United+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bulawayo Chiefs ↓

CAPS United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Bulawayo Chiefs or draw
68%
Bulawayo Chiefs or CAPS United
70%
Draw or CAPS United
62%

Winning margin

Bulawayo Chiefs wins by 2+
15%
CAPS United wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Bulawayo Chiefs 1+ goals
66%
Bulawayo Chiefs 2+ goals
29%
Bulawayo Chiefs 3+ goals
10%
CAPS United 1+ goals
62%
CAPS United 2+ goals
25%
CAPS United 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Bulawayo Chiefs (draw refunded)
54%
CAPS United (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bulawayo Chiefs at home — creates 1.02, concedes 0.89 · 80 matches

CAPS United away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.14 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bulawayo Chiefs attack 1.02 + CAPS United defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.08

CAPS United attack 1.03 + Bulawayo Chiefs defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Bulawayo Chiefs scores more
38%
level
30%
CAPS United scores more
32%

Bulawayo Chiefs at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Bulawayo Chiefs will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

43'
49'
O. Chirinda
61'
O. Chirinda
80'
I. Ali

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bulawayo Chiefs vs CAPS United

Bulawayo Chiefs beat CAPS United 2-1 in Premier Soccer League on July 8, 2023.

Goals: O. Chirinda (49', 61'), I. Ali (80').

The match was played at Luveve Stadium in Bulawayo.