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CAPS United vs Arenel Movers — Premier Soccer League 2026

CAPS United
CAPS United
FT
3 – 1
Arenel Movers
Arenel Movers
3/31/2024Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 4Rufaro Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

CAPS United54%
×Draw27%
Arenel Movers20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CAPS United
1.46
Arenel Movers
0.77

CAPS United creates 90% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 17 away

creates per match

CAPS United
1.22
Arenel Movers
0.59

allows per match

CAPS United
0.96
Arenel Movers
1.71

finishing

CAPS United+0.00on par
Arenel Movers+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CAPS United ↓

Arenel Movers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

CAPS United or draw
80%
CAPS United or Arenel Movers
73%
Draw or Arenel Movers
46%

Winning margin

CAPS United wins by 2+
27%
Arenel Movers wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

CAPS United 1+ goals
77%
CAPS United 2+ goals
43%
CAPS United 3+ goals
18%
Arenel Movers 1+ goals
54%
Arenel Movers 2+ goals
18%
Arenel Movers 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

CAPS United (draw refunded)
73%
Arenel Movers (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CAPS United at home — creates 1.22, concedes 0.96 · 96 matches

Arenel Movers away — creates 0.59, concedes 1.71 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CAPS United attack 1.22 + Arenel Movers defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.46

Arenel Movers attack 0.59 + CAPS United defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

CAPS United scores more
54%
level
27%
Arenel Movers scores more
20%

CAPS United at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "CAPS United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: CAPS United vs Arenel Movers

CAPS United beat Arenel Movers 3-1 in Premier Soccer League on March 31, 2024.

The match was played at Rufaro Stadium in Harare.