Arenel Movers 2–1 CAPS United: Result & Stats

Arenel Movers

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

CAPS United

7/27/2024

Premier Soccer League · Round 21Luveve Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Arenel Movers32%

×Draw33%

CAPS United36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Arenel MoversExpected goals in this matchCAPS United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.88

0.95

Arenel Movers

0.88

CAPS United

0.95

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 96 away

0.59

creates per match

1.02

0.88

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Arenel Movers

0.59

CAPS United

1.02

allows per match

Arenel Movers

0.88

CAPS United

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Arenel Movers+0.00on par

CAPS United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under72
Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arenel Movers ↓

CAPS United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–115%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–06%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

55%45%2.5

28%72%3.5

11%89%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Arenel Movers or draw

64%

Arenel Movers or CAPS United

67%

Draw or CAPS United

68%

Winning margin

Arenel Movers wins by 2+

11%

CAPS United wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Arenel Movers 1+ goals

59%

Arenel Movers 2+ goals

22%

Arenel Movers 3+ goals

6%

CAPS United 1+ goals

61%

CAPS United 2+ goals

25%

CAPS United 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Arenel Movers (draw refunded)

47%

CAPS United (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arenel Movers at home — creates 0.59, concedes 0.88 · 17 matches

CAPS United away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.16 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arenel Movers attack 0.59 + CAPS United defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 0.88

CAPS United attack 1.02 + Arenel Movers defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Arenel Movers scores more

32%

level

33%

CAPS United scores more

36%

CAPS United at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "CAPS United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff