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Capo II vs AMSG — USL League Two 2026

Capo II
Capo II
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
AMSG
AMSG
6/6/2024USL League TwoUSL League Two · Western Conference - 7JSerra Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Capo II59%
×Draw19%
AMSG22%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Capo II
2.40
AMSG
1.43

Capo II creates 68% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 16 away

creates per match

Capo II
2.36
AMSG
1.31

allows per match

Capo II
1.55
AMSG
2.44

finishing

Capo II+0.00on par
AMSG+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Capo II ↓

AMSG →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Capo II or draw
78%
Capo II or AMSG
81%
Draw or AMSG
41%

Winning margin

Capo II wins by 2+
37%
AMSG wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Capo II 1+ goals
91%
Capo II 2+ goals
69%
Capo II 3+ goals
42%
AMSG 1+ goals
76%
AMSG 2+ goals
42%
AMSG 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Capo II (draw refunded)
73%
AMSG (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Capo II at home — creates 2.36, concedes 1.55 · 11 matches

AMSG away — creates 1.31, concedes 2.44 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Capo II attack 2.36 + AMSG defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 2.40

AMSG attack 1.31 + Capo II defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Capo II scores more
59%
level
19%
AMSG scores more
22%

Capo II at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Capo II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Capo II vs AMSG

AMSG beat Capo II 2-1 in USL League Two on June 6, 2024.

The match was played at JSerra Field in San Juan Capistrano, California.