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AMSG vs Capo II — USL League Two 2026

AMSG
AMSG
FT
4 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Capo II
Capo II
5/15/2025USL League TwoUSL League Two · Western Conference - 2Boswell Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

AMSG33%
×Draw21%
Capo II47%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AMSG
1.83
Capo II
2.20

Capo II creates 20% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 9 away

creates per match

AMSG
2.11
Capo II
2.56

allows per match

AMSG
1.83
Capo II
1.56

finishing

AMSG+0.00on par
Capo II+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AMSG ↓

Capo II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
57%43%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

AMSG or draw
53%
AMSG or Capo II
79%
Draw or Capo II
67%

Winning margin

AMSG wins by 2+
17%
Capo II wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

AMSG 1+ goals
84%
AMSG 2+ goals
54%
AMSG 3+ goals
28%
Capo II 1+ goals
89%
Capo II 2+ goals
64%
Capo II 3+ goals
37%

Draw no bet

AMSG (draw refunded)
41%
Capo II (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AMSG at home — creates 2.11, concedes 1.83 · 18 matches

Capo II away — creates 2.56, concedes 1.56 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AMSG attack 2.11 + Capo II defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.83

Capo II attack 2.56 + AMSG defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 2.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

AMSG scores more
33%
level
21%
Capo II scores more
47%

Capo II at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Capo II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: AMSG vs Capo II

AMSG beat Capo II 4-0 in USL League Two on May 15, 2025.

The match was played at Boswell Field in Westminster.