Čapljina 2–4 Rudar Kakanj: Result & Stats

Čapljina

FT

2 – 4

Rudar Kakanj

3/30/2019

1st League - FBiH · Round 20Stadion Bjelave (Čapljina)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Čapljina52%

×Draw25%

Rudar Kakanj23%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ČapljinaExpected goals in this matchRudar Kakanj

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

0.98

Čapljina

1.60

Rudar Kakanj

0.98

Čapljina creates 63% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 70 away

1.62

creates per match

0.96

1.00

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Čapljina

1.62

Rudar Kakanj

0.96

allows per match

Čapljina

1.00

Rudar Kakanj

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Čapljina+0.00on par

Rudar Kakanj+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Čapljina ↓

Rudar Kakanj →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Čapljina or draw

77%

Čapljina or Rudar Kakanj

75%

Draw or Rudar Kakanj

48%

Winning margin

Čapljina wins by 2+

27%

Rudar Kakanj wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Čapljina 1+ goals

80%

Čapljina 2+ goals

47%

Čapljina 3+ goals

22%

Rudar Kakanj 1+ goals

62%

Rudar Kakanj 2+ goals

26%

Rudar Kakanj 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Čapljina (draw refunded)

69%

Rudar Kakanj (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Čapljina at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.00 · 26 matches

Rudar Kakanj away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.57 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Čapljina attack 1.62 + Rudar Kakanj defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.60

Rudar Kakanj attack 0.96 + Čapljina defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Čapljina scores more

52%

level

25%

Rudar Kakanj scores more

23%

Čapljina at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Čapljina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff