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Čapljina vs Rudar Kakanj — 1st League - FBiH 2019

Čapljina
Čapljina
FT
1 – 0
Rudar Kakanj
Rudar Kakanj
10/19/20191st League - FBiH1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 11Stadion Bjelave

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Čapljina54%
×Draw26%
Rudar Kakanj21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Čapljina
1.56
Rudar Kakanj
0.86

Čapljina creates 81% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 68 away

creates per match

Čapljina
1.57
Rudar Kakanj
0.90

allows per match

Čapljina
0.83
Rudar Kakanj
1.56

finishing

Čapljina+0.00on par
Rudar Kakanj+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Čapljina ↓

Rudar Kakanj →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Čapljina or draw
79%
Čapljina or Rudar Kakanj
74%
Draw or Rudar Kakanj
46%

Winning margin

Čapljina wins by 2+
28%
Rudar Kakanj wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Čapljina 1+ goals
79%
Čapljina 2+ goals
46%
Čapljina 3+ goals
21%
Rudar Kakanj 1+ goals
58%
Rudar Kakanj 2+ goals
21%
Rudar Kakanj 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Čapljina (draw refunded)
72%
Rudar Kakanj (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Čapljina at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.83 · 23 matches

Rudar Kakanj away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.56 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Čapljina attack 1.57 + Rudar Kakanj defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.56

Rudar Kakanj attack 0.90 + Čapljina defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Čapljina scores more
54%
level
26%
Rudar Kakanj scores more
21%

Čapljina at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Čapljina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Čapljina vs Rudar Kakanj

Čapljina beat Rudar Kakanj 1-0 in 1st League - FBiH on October 19, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Bjelave in Čapljina.