Čapljina 0–1 Bratstvo Gračanica: Result & Stats

Čapljina

FT

0 – 1

Bratstvo Gračanica

10/17/2020

1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 11Stadion Bjelave

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Čapljina51%

×Draw26%

Bratstvo Gračanica23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ČapljinaExpected goals in this matchBratstvo Gračanica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.49

0.89

Čapljina

1.49

Bratstvo Gračanica

0.89

Čapljina creates 67% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 96 away

1.57

creates per match

0.94

0.83

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Čapljina

1.57

Bratstvo Gračanica

0.94

allows per match

Čapljina

0.83

Bratstvo Gračanica

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Čapljina+0.00on par

Bratstvo Gračanica+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Čapljina ↓

Bratstvo Gračanica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Čapljina or draw

77%

Čapljina or Bratstvo Gračanica

74%

Draw or Bratstvo Gračanica

49%

Winning margin

Čapljina wins by 2+

26%

Bratstvo Gračanica wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Čapljina 1+ goals

77%

Čapljina 2+ goals

44%

Čapljina 3+ goals

19%

Bratstvo Gračanica 1+ goals

59%

Bratstvo Gračanica 2+ goals

22%

Bratstvo Gračanica 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Čapljina (draw refunded)

69%

Bratstvo Gračanica (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Čapljina at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.83 · 23 matches

Bratstvo Gračanica away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.41 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Čapljina attack 1.57 + Bratstvo Gračanica defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.49

Bratstvo Gračanica attack 0.94 + Čapljina defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Čapljina scores more

51%

level

26%

Bratstvo Gračanica scores more

23%

Čapljina at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Čapljina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff