Bratstvo Gračanica vs Čapljina

Bratstvo Gračanica

CANC

00:00

Čapljina

3/21/2020

1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 18Gradski stadion Luke

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Bratstvo Gračanica57%

×Draw22%

Čapljina21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bratstvo GračanicaExpected goals in this matchČapljina

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.89

1.04

Bratstvo Gračanica

1.89

Čapljina

1.04

Bratstvo Gračanica creates 82% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 23 away

1.81

creates per match

0.91

1.18

allows per match

1.96

creates per match

Bratstvo Gračanica

1.81

Čapljina

0.91

allows per match

Bratstvo Gračanica

1.18

Čapljina

1.96

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bratstvo Gračanica+0.00on par

Čapljina+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bratstvo Gračanica ↓

Čapljina →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Bratstvo Gračanica or draw

79%

Bratstvo Gračanica or Čapljina

78%

Draw or Čapljina

43%

Winning margin

Bratstvo Gračanica wins by 2+

33%

Čapljina wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Bratstvo Gračanica 1+ goals

85%

Bratstvo Gračanica 2+ goals

56%

Bratstvo Gračanica 3+ goals

29%

Čapljina 1+ goals

65%

Čapljina 2+ goals

28%

Čapljina 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Bratstvo Gračanica (draw refunded)

74%

Čapljina (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bratstvo Gračanica at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.18 · 96 matches

Čapljina away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.96 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bratstvo Gračanica attack 1.81 + Čapljina defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.89

Čapljina attack 0.91 + Bratstvo Gračanica defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Bratstvo Gračanica scores more

57%

level

22%

Čapljina scores more

21%

Bratstvo Gračanica at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Bratstvo Gračanica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff