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CAP vs Atletico-MG — Mineiro - 1 2020

CAP
CAP
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Atletico-MG
Atletico-MG
1/25/2024Mineiro - 1Mineiro - 1 · 1st Phase - 1Estádio Pedro Alves do Nascimento

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

CAP22%
×Draw28%
Atletico-MG50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CAP
0.78
Atletico-MG
1.33

Atletico-MG creates 71% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 45 away

creates per match

CAP
0.89
Atletico-MG
1.58

allows per match

CAP
1.07
Atletico-MG
0.67

finishing

CAP+0.00on par
Atletico-MG+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CAP ↓

Atletico-MG →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–116%
0–211%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

CAP or draw
50%
CAP or Atletico-MG
72%
Draw or Atletico-MG
78%

Winning margin

CAP wins by 2+
7%
Atletico-MG wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

CAP 1+ goals
54%
CAP 2+ goals
18%
CAP 3+ goals
4%
Atletico-MG 1+ goals
74%
Atletico-MG 2+ goals
38%
Atletico-MG 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

CAP (draw refunded)
31%
Atletico-MG (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CAP at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.07 · 27 matches

Atletico-MG away — creates 1.58, concedes 0.67 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CAP attack 0.89 + Atletico-MG defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.78

Atletico-MG attack 1.58 + CAP defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

CAP scores more
22%
level
28%
Atletico-MG scores more
50%

Atletico-MG at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Atletico-MG will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: CAP vs Atletico-MG

CAP beat Atletico-MG 2-1 in Mineiro - 1 on January 25, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Pedro Alves do Nascimento in Patrocínio, Minas Gerais.