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Atletico-MG vs CAP — Mineiro - 1 2020

Atletico-MG
Atletico-MG
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
CAP
CAP
2/18/2023Mineiro - 1Mineiro - 1 · 1st Phase - 6Estádio Raimundo Sampaio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Atletico-MG68%
×Draw21%
CAP11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atletico-MG
1.90
CAP
0.62

Atletico-MG creates 206% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 28 away

creates per match

Atletico-MG
2.04
CAP
0.68

allows per match

Atletico-MG
0.56
CAP
1.75

finishing

Atletico-MG+0.00on par
CAP+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico-MG ↓

CAP →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Atletico-MG or draw
89%
Atletico-MG or CAP
79%
Draw or CAP
32%

Winning margin

Atletico-MG wins by 2+
42%
CAP wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Atletico-MG 1+ goals
85%
Atletico-MG 2+ goals
56%
Atletico-MG 3+ goals
29%
CAP 1+ goals
46%
CAP 2+ goals
13%
CAP 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Atletico-MG (draw refunded)
86%
CAP (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico-MG at home — creates 2.04, concedes 0.56 · 45 matches

CAP away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.75 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico-MG attack 2.04 + CAP defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.90

CAP attack 0.68 + Atletico-MG defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 0.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Atletico-MG scores more
68%
level
21%
CAP scores more
11%

Atletico-MG at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Atletico-MG will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Mineiro - 1: Atletico-MG 2–1 CAP

Atletico-MG beat CAP 2-1 in Mineiro - 1 on February 18, 2023.

The match was played at Estádio Raimundo Sampaio in Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais.