CAP Ciudad de Murcia 1–1 Balsicas Atlético

CAP Ciudad de Murcia

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Balsicas Atlético

Fernando Carmona 50'

Martín Velgas 60'

4/21/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 30Estadio José Barnés

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

CAP Ciudad de Murcia46%

×Draw28%

Balsicas Atlético26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CAP Ciudad de MurciaExpected goals in this matchBalsicas Atlético

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

0.93

CAP Ciudad de Murcia

1.34

Balsicas Atlético

0.93

CAP Ciudad de Murcia creates 44% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 51 away

1.03

creates per match

0.82

1.04

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

CAP Ciudad de Murcia

1.03

Balsicas Atlético

0.82

allows per match

CAP Ciudad de Murcia

1.04

Balsicas Atlético

1.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CAP Ciudad de Murcia+0.00on par

Balsicas Atlético+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CAP Ciudad de Murcia ↓

Balsicas Atlético →

0–010%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

CAP Ciudad de Murcia or draw

74%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia or Balsicas Atlético

72%

Draw or Balsicas Atlético

54%

Winning margin

CAP Ciudad de Murcia wins by 2+

22%

Balsicas Atlético wins by 2+

Team goals

CAP Ciudad de Murcia 1+ goals

74%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia 2+ goals

39%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia 3+ goals

15%

Balsicas Atlético 1+ goals

61%

Balsicas Atlético 2+ goals

24%

Balsicas Atlético 3+ goals

Draw no bet

CAP Ciudad de Murcia (draw refunded)

64%

Balsicas Atlético (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

CAP Ciudad de Murcia at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.04 · 78 matches

Balsicas Atlético away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.65 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

CAP Ciudad de Murcia attack 1.03 + Balsicas Atlético defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.34

Balsicas Atlético attack 0.82 + CAP Ciudad de Murcia defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 46%?"

CAP Ciudad de Murcia scores more

46%

level

28%

Balsicas Atlético scores more

26%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "CAP Ciudad de Murcia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

José Rivas← Álvaro Moñino

50'

Fernando Carmona

59'

Mohammed Benhallou← Javier Riquelme

59'

Francisco Vázquez← Ismael Sánchez

60'

Martín Velgas

65'

Juan Vera← Fran Conesa

77'

José Muñoz← M. Aghaylane

80'

Pablo Guillen← David Vera

88'

Diego García← Alvaro Martinez

CAP

Balsicas

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: Francisco Lorca

14'▲José Rivas←▼Álvaro Moñino

65'▲Juan Vera←▼Fran Conesa

80'▲Pablo Guillen←▼David Vera

CAP Ciudad de Murcia substitutes

RivasVeraGuillen

Manager: José Lorenzo

59'▲Mohammed Benhallou←▼Javier Riquelme

59'▲Francisco Vázquez←▼Ismael Sánchez

77'▲José Muñoz←▼M. Aghaylane

88'▲Diego García←▼Alvaro Martinez

Balsicas Atlético substitutes

BenhallouVázquezMuñozGarcía

Match Recap: CAP Ciudad de Murcia vs Balsicas Atlético

CAP Ciudad de Murcia and Balsicas Atlético drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on April 21, 2024.

Goals: Fernando Carmona (50'), Martín Velgas (60').

The match was played at Estadio José Barnés in Murcia.

CAP Ciudad de Murcia vs Balsicas Atlético — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: CAP Ciudad de Murcia vs Balsicas Atlético