Balsicas Atlético 1–0 CAP Ciudad de Murcia

Balsicas Atlético

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

CAP Ciudad de Murcia

M. Aghaylane 57' (pen)

12/3/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 13Campo de Fútbol de Balsicas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Balsicas Atlético43%

×Draw27%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Balsicas AtléticoExpected goals in this matchCAP Ciudad de Murcia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.13

Balsicas Atlético

1.40

CAP Ciudad de Murcia

1.13

Balsicas Atlético creates 24% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 78 away

1.35

creates per match

0.85

1.41

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Balsicas Atlético

1.35

CAP Ciudad de Murcia

0.85

allows per match

Balsicas Atlético

1.41

CAP Ciudad de Murcia

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Balsicas Atlético+0.00on par

CAP Ciudad de Murcia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Balsicas Atlético ↓

CAP Ciudad de Murcia →

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Balsicas Atlético or draw

70%

Balsicas Atlético or CAP Ciudad de Murcia

73%

Draw or CAP Ciudad de Murcia

57%

Winning margin

Balsicas Atlético wins by 2+

20%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Balsicas Atlético 1+ goals

75%

Balsicas Atlético 2+ goals

41%

Balsicas Atlético 3+ goals

17%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia 1+ goals

68%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia 2+ goals

31%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Balsicas Atlético (draw refunded)

59%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Balsicas Atlético at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.41 · 51 matches

CAP Ciudad de Murcia away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.45 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Balsicas Atlético attack 1.35 + CAP Ciudad de Murcia defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.40

CAP Ciudad de Murcia attack 0.85 + Balsicas Atlético defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 43%?"

Balsicas Atlético scores more

43%

level

27%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia scores more

30%

Balsicas Atlético at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Balsicas Atlético will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

Hamza Agnaou← Fran Martínez

46'

Fernando Carmona← David Vera

57'

M. AghaylanePenalty

65'

Francky Angong← Saúl Gracia

65'

Lamine Cisse← J. Pino

65'

Hicham Ourkia← Nasr

76'

Adrián Velasco← Juan Vera

85'

Abdelilah Labiad← Mohammed Benhallou

85'

Luis Martínez← Martín Velgas

Balsicas

CAP

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: José Lorenzo

65'▲Francky Angong←▼Saúl Gracia

65'▲Lamine Cisse←▼J. Pino

65'▲Hicham Ourkia←▼Nasr

85'▲Abdelilah Labiad←▼Mohammed Benhallou

85'▲Luis Martínez←▼Martín Velgas

Balsicas Atlético substitutes

AngongCisseOurkiaLabiadMartínez

Manager: Francisco Lorca

46'▲Hamza Agnaou←▼Fran Martínez

46'▲Fernando Carmona←▼David Vera

76'▲Adrián Velasco←▼Juan Vera

CAP Ciudad de Murcia substitutes

AgnaouCarmonaVelasco