CAP Ciudad de Murcia 2–4 Archena Sport

CAP Ciudad de Murcia

2 – 4

HT: 0 – 1

Archena Sport

Matías 71'

Emilio Pérez 56'

Jesús Parra 90+2'

Kilian Morante 51'

Felipe Pires 47'

Peque 3' (OG)

4/24/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 33Estadio José Barnés

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

CAP Ciudad de Murcia38%

×Draw29%

Archena Sport33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CAP Ciudad de MurciaExpected goals in this matchArchena Sport

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

1.05

CAP Ciudad de Murcia

1.16

Archena Sport

1.05

CAP Ciudad de Murcia creates 10% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 17 away

1.03

creates per match

1.06

1.04

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

CAP Ciudad de Murcia

1.03

Archena Sport

1.06

allows per match

CAP Ciudad de Murcia

1.04

Archena Sport

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CAP Ciudad de Murcia+0.00on par

Archena Sport+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CAP Ciudad de Murcia ↓

Archena Sport →

0–011%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

CAP Ciudad de Murcia or draw

67%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia or Archena Sport

71%

Draw or Archena Sport

62%

Winning margin

CAP Ciudad de Murcia wins by 2+

16%

Archena Sport wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

CAP Ciudad de Murcia 1+ goals

69%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia 2+ goals

32%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia 3+ goals

11%

Archena Sport 1+ goals

65%

Archena Sport 2+ goals

28%

Archena Sport 3+ goals

Draw no bet

CAP Ciudad de Murcia (draw refunded)

54%

Archena Sport (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

CAP Ciudad de Murcia at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.04 · 78 matches

Archena Sport away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

CAP Ciudad de Murcia attack 1.03 + Archena Sport defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.16

Archena Sport attack 1.06 + CAP Ciudad de Murcia defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 38%?"

CAP Ciudad de Murcia scores more

38%

level

29%

Archena Sport scores more

33%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "CAP Ciudad de Murcia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

PequeOwn goal

46'

David Valverde← Miguel

47'

Felipe Pires

51'

Kilian Morante

56'

Emilio Pérez

58'

Pablo Imbernón← David Vera

60'

Alejandro Pérez← Mario

60'

Javi Muñoz← Trucha

60'

Matías← Alberto Martínez

63'

Alejo Nahuel← Kilian Morante

71'

Matías

76'

Richard← Sergio Cases

82'

Alejandro Molina← Samuel Martínez

90+2'

Jesús Parra

CAP

Archena

⚽

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

🥅

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: Ismael Ibañez

46'▲David Valverde←▼Miguel

60'▲Alejandro Pérez←▼Mario

60'▲Javi Muñoz←▼Trucha

60'▲Matías←▼Alberto Martínez

82'▲Alejandro Molina←▼Samuel Martínez

CAP Ciudad de Murcia substitutes

ValverdePérezMuñozMatíasMolina

Manager: Jorge Perona

58'▲Pablo Imbernón←▼David Vera

63'▲Alejo Nahuel←▼Kilian Morante

76'▲Richard←▼Sergio Cases

Archena Sport substitutes

ImbernónNahuelRichard