Archena Sport 2–2 CAP Ciudad de Murcia

Archena Sport

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

CAP Ciudad de Murcia

Kilian Morante 82'

Antonio Martínez 56'

Miguel 75'

Emilio Pérez 33'

12/11/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 16Campo de fútbol Municipal Andrés Abenza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Archena Sport44%

×Draw25%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Archena SportExpected goals in this matchCAP Ciudad de Murcia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

1.25

Archena Sport

1.55

CAP Ciudad de Murcia

1.25

Archena Sport creates 24% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 78 away

1.65

creates per match

0.85

1.65

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Archena Sport

1.65

CAP Ciudad de Murcia

0.85

allows per match

Archena Sport

1.65

CAP Ciudad de Murcia

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Archena Sport+0.00on par

CAP Ciudad de Murcia+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Archena Sport ↓

CAP Ciudad de Murcia →

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1–09%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Archena Sport or draw

69%

Archena Sport or CAP Ciudad de Murcia

75%

Draw or CAP Ciudad de Murcia

56%

Winning margin

Archena Sport wins by 2+

22%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Archena Sport 1+ goals

79%

Archena Sport 2+ goals

46%

Archena Sport 3+ goals

20%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia 1+ goals

71%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia 2+ goals

36%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Archena Sport (draw refunded)

59%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Archena Sport at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.65 · 17 matches

CAP Ciudad de Murcia away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.45 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Archena Sport attack 1.65 + CAP Ciudad de Murcia defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.55

CAP Ciudad de Murcia attack 0.85 + Archena Sport defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 44%?"

Archena Sport scores more

44%

level

25%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia scores more

31%

Archena Sport at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Archena Sport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

Fabio← Pablo Imbernón

33'

Emilio Pérez

46'

Pedro Montero← Diego

56'

Antonio Martínez

58'

Kilian Morante← Fabio

75'

Pablo Guillen← Javi Muñoz

75'

Alberto Martínez← Emilio Pérez

75'

Miguel

80'

Matías← Miguel

82'

Kilian Morante

89'

Jose Vegara← Sergio Cases

Archena

CAP

▼

⚽

▼

Miguel

Valverde

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: Jorge Perona

9'▲Fabio←▼Pablo Imbernón

46'▲Pedro Montero←▼Diego

58'▲Kilian Morante←▼Fabio

89'▲Jose Vegara←▼Sergio Cases

Archena Sport substitutes

FabioMonteroMoranteVegara

Manager: Ismael Ibañez

75'▲Pablo Guillen←▼Javi Muñoz

75'▲Alberto Martínez←▼Emilio Pérez

80'▲Matías←▼Miguel

CAP Ciudad de Murcia substitutes

GuillenMartínezMatías