CAP Ciudad de Murcia 1–2 Algar: Result & Stats

CAP Ciudad de Murcia

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Algar

Pablo Serrano 65'

Pablo Guillen 38' (OG)

Sergio Jiménez 20'

3/3/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 23Estadio José Barnés

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

CAP Ciudad de Murcia52%

×Draw26%

Algar21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CAP Ciudad de MurciaExpected goals in this matchAlgar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

0.84

CAP Ciudad de Murcia

1.48

Algar

0.84

CAP Ciudad de Murcia creates 76% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 17 away

1.03

creates per match

0.65

1.04

allows per match

1.94

creates per match

CAP Ciudad de Murcia

1.03

Algar

0.65

allows per match

CAP Ciudad de Murcia

1.04

Algar

1.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CAP Ciudad de Murcia+0.00on par

Algar+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CAP Ciudad de Murcia ↓

Algar →

0–010%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

CAP Ciudad de Murcia or draw

79%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia or Algar

74%

Draw or Algar

48%

Winning margin

CAP Ciudad de Murcia wins by 2+

27%

Algar wins by 2+

Team goals

CAP Ciudad de Murcia 1+ goals

77%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia 2+ goals

43%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia 3+ goals

19%

Algar 1+ goals

57%

Algar 2+ goals

21%

Algar 3+ goals

Draw no bet

CAP Ciudad de Murcia (draw refunded)

71%

Algar (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

CAP Ciudad de Murcia at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.04 · 78 matches

Algar away — creates 0.65, concedes 1.94 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

CAP Ciudad de Murcia attack 1.03 + Algar defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.48

Algar attack 0.65 + CAP Ciudad de Murcia defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 52%?"

CAP Ciudad de Murcia scores more

52%

level

26%

Algar scores more

21%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "CAP Ciudad de Murcia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'

Sergio Jiménez

38'

Pablo GuillenOwn goal

46'

A. Hassi← Dani Casado

65'

Pablo Serrano

72'

Cascales← Manuel Rodriguez

75'

Hamza Agnaou← Lorenzo Lopez

78'

Adrian Marty← Michel Vidal

89'

Juan Gavilánez← Rivo

CAP

Algar

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

🥅

▼

Manager: Francisco Lorca

46'▲A. Hassi←▼Dani Casado

75'▲Hamza Agnaou←▼Lorenzo Lopez

CAP Ciudad de Murcia substitutes

HassiAgnaou

Manager: David Bascuñana

72'▲Cascales←▼Manuel Rodriguez

78'▲Adrian Marty←▼Michel Vidal

89'▲Juan Gavilánez←▼Rivo

Algar substitutes

CascalesMartyGavilánez

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13: CAP Ciudad de Murcia 1–2 Algar

Algar beat CAP Ciudad de Murcia 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on March 3, 2024.

Goals: Sergio Jiménez (20'), Pablo Guillen (38' o.g.), Pablo Serrano (65').

The match was played at Estadio José Barnés in Murcia.

CAP Ciudad de Murcia vs Algar — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13: CAP Ciudad de Murcia 1–2 Algar