Algar 2–2 CAP Ciudad de Murcia: Result & Stats

Algar

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

CAP Ciudad de Murcia

Nono 57', 39'

Marcos Díaz 69'

José Rivas 38'

10/15/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 6Estadio Sánchez Luengo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Algar36%

×Draw26%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AlgarExpected goals in this matchCAP Ciudad de Murcia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.36

Algar

1.31

CAP Ciudad de Murcia

1.36

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 78 away

1.18

creates per match

0.85

1.88

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Algar

1.18

CAP Ciudad de Murcia

0.85

allows per match

Algar

1.88

CAP Ciudad de Murcia

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Algar+0.00on par

CAP Ciudad de Murcia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Algar ↓

CAP Ciudad de Murcia →

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Algar or draw

62%

Algar or CAP Ciudad de Murcia

74%

Draw or CAP Ciudad de Murcia

64%

Winning margin

Algar wins by 2+

16%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Algar 1+ goals

73%

Algar 2+ goals

38%

Algar 3+ goals

14%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia 1+ goals

74%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia 2+ goals

39%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Algar (draw refunded)

48%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Algar at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.88 · 17 matches

CAP Ciudad de Murcia away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.45 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Algar attack 1.18 + CAP Ciudad de Murcia defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.31

CAP Ciudad de Murcia attack 0.85 + Algar defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 38%?"

Algar scores more

36%

level

26%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia scores more

38%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "CAP Ciudad de Murcia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

38'

José Rivas

39'

Nono

57'

Nono

63'

Manuel Rodriguez← Ketchup

63'

Alejandro Pascual← Juan Vera

63'

Fran Conesa← Fernando Carmona

63'

Pablo Guillen← Hamza Agnaou

69'

Marcos Díaz

70'

Nasta← Lázaro Rubio

77'

Michel Vidal← Nono

Algar

CAP

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

Nono

Manager: David Bascuñana

63'▲Manuel Rodriguez←▼Ketchup

70'▲Nasta←▼Lázaro Rubio

77'▲Michel Vidal←▼Nono

Algar substitutes

RodriguezNastaVidal

Manager: Francisco Lorca

63'▲Alejandro Pascual←▼Juan Vera

63'▲Fran Conesa←▼Fernando Carmona

63'▲Pablo Guillen←▼Hamza Agnaou

CAP Ciudad de Murcia substitutes

PascualConesaGuillen

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13: Algar 2–2 CAP Ciudad de Murcia

Algar and CAP Ciudad de Murcia drew 2-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on October 15, 2023.

Goals: José Rivas (38'), Nono (39', 57'), Marcos Díaz (69').

The match was played at Estadio Sánchez Luengo in El Algar.

Algar vs CAP Ciudad de Murcia — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13: Algar 2–2 CAP Ciudad de Murcia