CAP Ciudad de Murcia 0–0 Alcantarilla

CAP Ciudad de Murcia

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Alcantarilla

10/9/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 5Estadio José Barnés

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

CAP Ciudad de Murcia48%

×Draw29%

Alcantarilla23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CAP Ciudad de MurciaExpected goals in this matchAlcantarilla

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

0.81

CAP Ciudad de Murcia

1.31

Alcantarilla

0.81

CAP Ciudad de Murcia creates 62% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 49 away

1.03

creates per match

0.59

1.04

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

CAP Ciudad de Murcia

1.03

Alcantarilla

0.59

allows per match

CAP Ciudad de Murcia

1.04

Alcantarilla

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CAP Ciudad de Murcia+0.00on par

Alcantarilla+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CAP Ciudad de Murcia ↓

Alcantarilla →

0–012%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–04%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

CAP Ciudad de Murcia or draw

77%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia or Alcantarilla

71%

Draw or Alcantarilla

52%

Winning margin

CAP Ciudad de Murcia wins by 2+

23%

Alcantarilla wins by 2+

Team goals

CAP Ciudad de Murcia 1+ goals

73%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia 2+ goals

38%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia 3+ goals

14%

Alcantarilla 1+ goals

56%

Alcantarilla 2+ goals

19%

Alcantarilla 3+ goals

Draw no bet

CAP Ciudad de Murcia (draw refunded)

68%

Alcantarilla (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

CAP Ciudad de Murcia at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.04 · 78 matches

Alcantarilla away — creates 0.59, concedes 1.59 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

CAP Ciudad de Murcia attack 1.03 + Alcantarilla defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.31

Alcantarilla attack 0.59 + CAP Ciudad de Murcia defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 48%?"

CAP Ciudad de Murcia scores more

48%

level

29%

Alcantarilla scores more

23%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "CAP Ciudad de Murcia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

Marcos Díaz← Miguel

64'

Francisco Escobar← Fran Martínez

69'

Joaquín Parra← Pablo Imbernón

69'

Ángel Álvarez← Diego Cárceles

79'

Asensio Miñarro← Diego Jiménez

79'

Douglas← Papi

79'

Joaquin Canovas← Pedro López

89'

Jesús Ros← Raúl Tornel

CAP

Alcantarilla

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Francisco Lorca

64'▲Francisco Escobar←▼Fran Martínez

79'▲Asensio Miñarro←▼Diego Jiménez

89'▲Jesús Ros←▼Raúl Tornel

CAP Ciudad de Murcia substitutes

EscobarMiñarroRos

Manager: Víctor Pagán

46'▲Marcos Díaz←▼Miguel

69'▲Joaquín Parra←▼Pablo Imbernón

69'▲Ángel Álvarez←▼Diego Cárceles

79'▲Douglas←▼Papi

79'▲Joaquin Canovas←▼Pedro López

Alcantarilla substitutes

DíazParraÁlvarezDouglasCanovas

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13: CAP Ciudad de Murcia 0–0 Alcantarilla

CAP Ciudad de Murcia and Alcantarilla drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on October 9, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio José Barnés in Murcia.

CAP Ciudad de Murcia vs Alcantarilla — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13: CAP Ciudad de Murcia 0–0 Alcantarilla