Alcantarilla 0–1 CAP Ciudad de Murcia

Alcantarilla

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

CAP Ciudad de Murcia

Raúl Tornel 2'

2/5/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 20Polideportivo Municipal Ángel Sornichero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Alcantarilla38%

×Draw28%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AlcantarillaExpected goals in this matchCAP Ciudad de Murcia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.10

Alcantarilla

1.19

CAP Ciudad de Murcia

1.10

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 49 home / 78 away

0.94

creates per match

0.85

1.35

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Alcantarilla

0.94

CAP Ciudad de Murcia

0.85

allows per match

Alcantarilla

1.35

CAP Ciudad de Murcia

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alcantarilla+0.00on par

CAP Ciudad de Murcia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alcantarilla ↓

CAP Ciudad de Murcia →

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Alcantarilla or draw

66%

Alcantarilla or CAP Ciudad de Murcia

72%

Draw or CAP Ciudad de Murcia

62%

Winning margin

Alcantarilla wins by 2+

16%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Alcantarilla 1+ goals

70%

Alcantarilla 2+ goals

33%

Alcantarilla 3+ goals

12%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia 1+ goals

67%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia 2+ goals

30%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Alcantarilla (draw refunded)

53%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Alcantarilla at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.35 · 49 matches

CAP Ciudad de Murcia away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.45 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Alcantarilla attack 0.94 + CAP Ciudad de Murcia defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.19

CAP Ciudad de Murcia attack 0.85 + Alcantarilla defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 38%?"

Alcantarilla scores more

38%

level

28%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia scores more

34%

Alcantarilla at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Alcantarilla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

Raúl Tornel

46'

Pedro López← José Nicolás

46'

Joaquín Parra← Joaquin Canovas

60'

Pablo Imbernón← Pedro Martinez

63'

Diego Jiménez← Raúl Tornel

78'

Torrano← Marcos Díaz

81'

Fernando Carmona← Alejandro Pascual

89'

Felipe Valverde← Samuel Martínez

90+1'

Mario Ortín← Diego Cárceles

Alcantarilla

CAP

▼

⚽

▼

Tornel

Lopez

▼

Martínez

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Víctor Romero

46'▲Pedro López←▼José Nicolás

46'▲Joaquín Parra←▼Joaquin Canovas

60'▲Pablo Imbernón←▼Pedro Martinez

78'▲Torrano←▼Marcos Díaz

90+1'▲Mario Ortín←▼Diego Cárceles

Alcantarilla substitutes

LópezParraImbernónTorranoOrtín

Manager: Francisco Lorca

63'▲Diego Jiménez←▼Raúl Tornel

81'▲Fernando Carmona←▼Alejandro Pascual

89'▲Felipe Valverde←▼Samuel Martínez

CAP Ciudad de Murcia substitutes

JiménezCarmonaValverde

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13: Alcantarilla 0–1 CAP Ciudad de Murcia

CAP Ciudad de Murcia beat Alcantarilla 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on February 5, 2023.

Goals: Raúl Tornel (2').

The match was played at Polideportivo Municipal Ángel Sornichero in Alcantarilla.

Alcantarilla vs CAP Ciudad de Murcia — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13: Alcantarilla 0–1 CAP Ciudad de Murcia