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Canuelas vs Argentino Quilmes — Primera B Metropolitana 2026

Canuelas
Canuelas
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Argentino Quilmes
Argentino Quilmes
3/11/2023Primera B MetropolitanaPrimera B Metropolitana · Apertura - 5Estadio Jorge Alfredo Arín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Canuelas40%
×Draw29%
Argentino Quilmes31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Canuelas
1.21
Argentino Quilmes
1.02

Canuelas creates 19% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 123 away

creates per match

Canuelas
1.07
Argentino Quilmes
0.96

allows per match

Canuelas
1.07
Argentino Quilmes
1.35

finishing

Canuelas+0.00on par
Argentino Quilmes+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Canuelas ↓

Argentino Quilmes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Canuelas or draw
69%
Canuelas or Argentino Quilmes
71%
Draw or Argentino Quilmes
60%

Winning margin

Canuelas wins by 2+
17%
Argentino Quilmes wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Canuelas 1+ goals
70%
Canuelas 2+ goals
34%
Canuelas 3+ goals
12%
Argentino Quilmes 1+ goals
64%
Argentino Quilmes 2+ goals
27%
Argentino Quilmes 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Canuelas (draw refunded)
57%
Argentino Quilmes (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Canuelas at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.07 · 70 matches

Argentino Quilmes away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.35 · 123 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Canuelas attack 1.07 + Argentino Quilmes defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.21

Argentino Quilmes attack 0.96 + Canuelas defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Canuelas scores more
40%
level
29%
Argentino Quilmes scores more
31%

Canuelas at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Canuelas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Canuelas vs Argentino Quilmes

Argentino Quilmes beat Canuelas 2-1 in Primera B Metropolitana on March 11, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Jorge Alfredo Arín in Cañuelas, Provincia de Buenos Aires.