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Argentino Quilmes vs Canuelas — Primera B Metropolitana 2026

Argentino Quilmes
Argentino Quilmes
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Canuelas
Canuelas
7/5/2024Primera B MetropolitanaPrimera B Metropolitana · Clausura - 3Estadio de Argentino de Quilmes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

Argentino Quilmes46%
×Draw29%
Canuelas25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Argentino Quilmes
1.27
Canuelas
0.85

Argentino Quilmes creates 49% more chances

Season form · 124 home / 71 away

creates per match

Argentino Quilmes
1.22
Canuelas
0.85

allows per match

Argentino Quilmes
0.85
Canuelas
1.32

finishing

Argentino Quilmes+0.00on par
Canuelas+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Argentino Quilmes ↓

Canuelas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Argentino Quilmes or draw
75%
Argentino Quilmes or Canuelas
71%
Draw or Canuelas
54%

Winning margin

Argentino Quilmes wins by 2+
21%
Canuelas wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Argentino Quilmes 1+ goals
72%
Argentino Quilmes 2+ goals
36%
Argentino Quilmes 3+ goals
14%
Canuelas 1+ goals
57%
Canuelas 2+ goals
21%
Canuelas 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Argentino Quilmes (draw refunded)
65%
Canuelas (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Argentino Quilmes at home — creates 1.22, concedes 0.85 · 124 matches

Canuelas away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.32 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Argentino Quilmes attack 1.22 + Canuelas defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.27

Canuelas attack 0.85 + Argentino Quilmes defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Argentino Quilmes scores more
46%
level
29%
Canuelas scores more
25%

Argentino Quilmes at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Argentino Quilmes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Argentino Quilmes vs Canuelas

Argentino Quilmes and Canuelas drew 0-0 in Primera B Metropolitana on July 5, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio de Argentino de Quilmes in Quilmes, Provincia de Buenos Aires.