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Canon vs Fortuna Mfou — Elite One 2019

Canon
Canon
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Fortuna Mfou
Fortuna Mfou
3/23/2026Elite OneElite One · Round 11Stade Omnisports Annexe 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Canon44%
×Draw28%
Fortuna Mfou28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Canon
1.31
Fortuna Mfou
0.97

Canon creates 35% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 96 away

creates per match

Canon
1.24
Fortuna Mfou
1.09

allows per match

Canon
0.84
Fortuna Mfou
1.39

finishing

Canon+0.00on par
Fortuna Mfou+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Canon ↓

Fortuna Mfou →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Canon or draw
72%
Canon or Fortuna Mfou
72%
Draw or Fortuna Mfou
56%

Winning margin

Canon wins by 2+
20%
Fortuna Mfou wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Canon 1+ goals
73%
Canon 2+ goals
38%
Canon 3+ goals
14%
Fortuna Mfou 1+ goals
62%
Fortuna Mfou 2+ goals
25%
Fortuna Mfou 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Canon (draw refunded)
62%
Fortuna Mfou (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Canon at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.84 · 90 matches

Fortuna Mfou away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.39 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Canon attack 1.24 + Fortuna Mfou defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.31

Fortuna Mfou attack 1.09 + Canon defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Canon scores more
44%
level
28%
Fortuna Mfou scores more
28%

Canon at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Canon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Elite One: Canon 1–0 Fortuna Mfou

Canon beat Fortuna Mfou 1-0 in Elite One on March 23, 2026.

The match was played at Stade Omnisports Annexe 1.