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Cancún vs Atlante FC — Liga de Expansión MX 2018

Cancún
Cancún
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Atlante FC
Atlante FC
4/12/2026Liga de Expansión MXLiga de Expansión MX · Clausura - 14

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 101+ matches

Cancún42%
×Draw28%
Atlante FC31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cancún
1.31
Atlante FC
1.08

Cancún creates 21% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 147 away

creates per match

Cancún
1.51
Atlante FC
1.22

allows per match

Cancún
0.94
Atlante FC
1.10

finishing

Cancún+0.00on par
Atlante FC+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cancún ↓

Atlante FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Cancún or draw
69%
Cancún or Atlante FC
72%
Draw or Atlante FC
58%

Winning margin

Cancún wins by 2+
19%
Atlante FC wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Cancún 1+ goals
73%
Cancún 2+ goals
38%
Cancún 3+ goals
14%
Atlante FC 1+ goals
66%
Atlante FC 2+ goals
29%
Atlante FC 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Cancún (draw refunded)
58%
Atlante FC (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cancún at home — creates 1.51, concedes 0.94 · 101 matches

Atlante FC away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.10 · 147 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cancún attack 1.51 + Atlante FC defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.31

Atlante FC attack 1.22 + Cancún defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Cancún scores more
42%
level
28%
Atlante FC scores more
31%

Cancún at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Cancún will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga de Expansión MX: Cancún 2–1 Atlante FC

Cancún beat Atlante FC 2-1 in Liga de Expansión MX on April 12, 2026.