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Atlante FC vs Cancún — Liga de Expansión MX 2018

Atlante FC
Atlante FC
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Cancún
Cancún
11/2/2025Liga de Expansión MXLiga de Expansión MX · Apertura - 14Estadio Agustín Coruco Díaz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 99+ matches

Atlante FC56%
×Draw26%
Cancún19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlante FC
1.55
Cancún
0.77

Atlante FC creates 101% more chances

Season form · 147 home / 99 away

creates per match

Atlante FC
1.73
Cancún
0.92

allows per match

Atlante FC
0.62
Cancún
1.38

finishing

Atlante FC+0.00on par
Cancún+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlante FC ↓

Cancún →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Atlante FC or draw
81%
Atlante FC or Cancún
74%
Draw or Cancún
44%

Winning margin

Atlante FC wins by 2+
29%
Cancún wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Atlante FC 1+ goals
79%
Atlante FC 2+ goals
46%
Atlante FC 3+ goals
20%
Cancún 1+ goals
54%
Cancún 2+ goals
18%
Cancún 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Atlante FC (draw refunded)
75%
Cancún (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlante FC at home — creates 1.73, concedes 0.62 · 147 matches

Cancún away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.38 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlante FC attack 1.73 + Cancún defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.55

Cancún attack 0.92 + Atlante FC defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Atlante FC scores more
56%
level
26%
Cancún scores more
19%

Atlante FC at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Atlante FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Atlante FC vs Cancún

Atlante FC and Cancún drew 1-1 in Liga de Expansión MX on November 2, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Agustín Coruco Díaz in Zacatepec.