Can Vidalet 1–0 Badalona: Result & Stats

Can Vidalet

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Badalona

2/8/2026

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 21Camp Municipal El Molí

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Can Vidalet36%

×Draw29%

Badalona34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Can VidaletExpected goals in this matchBadalona

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.12

1.08

Can Vidalet

1.12

Badalona

1.08

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 19 away

1.24

creates per match

1.05

1.12

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Can Vidalet

1.24

Badalona

1.05

allows per match

Can Vidalet

1.12

Badalona

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Can Vidalet+0.00on par

Badalona+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Can Vidalet ↓

Badalona →

0–011%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Can Vidalet or draw

66%

Can Vidalet or Badalona

71%

Draw or Badalona

64%

Winning margin

Can Vidalet wins by 2+

15%

Badalona wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Can Vidalet 1+ goals

67%

Can Vidalet 2+ goals

31%

Can Vidalet 3+ goals

10%

Badalona 1+ goals

66%

Badalona 2+ goals

29%

Badalona 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Can Vidalet (draw refunded)

51%

Badalona (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Can Vidalet at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.12 · 17 matches

Badalona away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.00 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Can Vidalet attack 1.24 + Badalona defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.12

Badalona attack 1.05 + Can Vidalet defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 36%?"

Can Vidalet scores more

36%

level

29%

Badalona scores more

34%

Can Vidalet at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Can Vidalet will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff