Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Badalona vs Can Vidalet — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Badalona
Badalona
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Can Vidalet
Can Vidalet
9/28/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 5Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 4Estadi Municipal de Badalona

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Badalona61%
×Draw23%
Can Vidalet16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Badalona
1.77
Can Vidalet
0.76

Badalona creates 133% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 17 away

creates per match

Badalona
1.53
Can Vidalet
0.82

allows per match

Badalona
0.71
Can Vidalet
2.00

finishing

Badalona+0.00on par
Can Vidalet+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Badalona ↓

Can Vidalet →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Badalona or draw
84%
Badalona or Can Vidalet
77%
Draw or Can Vidalet
39%

Winning margin

Badalona wins by 2+
35%
Can Vidalet wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Badalona 1+ goals
83%
Badalona 2+ goals
53%
Badalona 3+ goals
26%
Can Vidalet 1+ goals
53%
Can Vidalet 2+ goals
18%
Can Vidalet 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Badalona (draw refunded)
80%
Can Vidalet (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Badalona at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.71 · 17 matches

Can Vidalet away — creates 0.82, concedes 2.00 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Badalona attack 1.53 + Can Vidalet defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.77

Can Vidalet attack 0.82 + Badalona defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Badalona scores more
61%
level
23%
Can Vidalet scores more
16%

Badalona at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Badalona will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Badalona vs Can Vidalet

Badalona and Can Vidalet drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on September 28, 2025.

The match was played at Estadi Municipal de Badalona in Badalona.