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Campodarsego vs Breno — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Campodarsego
Campodarsego
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Breno
Breno
A. Pavanello 70'
M. Cupani 17'
D. Vita 58', 35'
11/1/2023Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 9Centro Sportivo Il Gabbiano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Campodarsego47%
×Draw26%
Breno27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Campodarsego
1.52
Breno
1.08

Campodarsego creates 41% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 17 away

creates per match

Campodarsego
1.52
Breno
1.18

allows per match

Campodarsego
0.98
Breno
1.53

finishing

Campodarsego+0.00on par
Breno+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Campodarsego ↓

Breno →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Campodarsego or draw
73%
Campodarsego or Breno
74%
Draw or Breno
53%

Winning margin

Campodarsego wins by 2+
24%
Breno wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Campodarsego 1+ goals
78%
Campodarsego 2+ goals
45%
Campodarsego 3+ goals
20%
Breno 1+ goals
66%
Breno 2+ goals
29%
Breno 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Campodarsego (draw refunded)
64%
Breno (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Campodarsego at home — creates 1.52, concedes 0.98 · 100 matches

Breno away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.53 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Campodarsego attack 1.52 + Breno defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.52

Breno attack 1.18 + Campodarsego defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Campodarsego scores more
47%
level
26%
Breno scores more
27%

Campodarsego at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Campodarsego will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'
M. Cupani
35'
D. Vita
58'
D. Vita
70'
A. Pavanello

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Campodarsego vs Breno

Campodarsego and Breno drew 2-2 in Serie D - Girone C on November 1, 2023.

Goals: M. Cupani (17'), D. Vita (35', 58'), A. Pavanello (70').

The match was played at Centro Sportivo Il Gabbiano in Campodarsego.