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Breno vs Campodarsego — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Breno
Breno
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Campodarsego
Campodarsego
3/10/2024Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 26Campo Sportivo Comunale Tassara

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Breno31%
×Draw28%
Campodarsego41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Breno
1.06
Campodarsego
1.27

Campodarsego creates 20% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 101 away

creates per match

Breno
1.12
Campodarsego
1.20

allows per match

Breno
1.35
Campodarsego
0.99

finishing

Breno+0.00on par
Campodarsego+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Breno ↓

Campodarsego →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Breno or draw
59%
Breno or Campodarsego
72%
Draw or Campodarsego
69%

Winning margin

Breno wins by 2+
12%
Campodarsego wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Breno 1+ goals
65%
Breno 2+ goals
29%
Breno 3+ goals
9%
Campodarsego 1+ goals
72%
Campodarsego 2+ goals
36%
Campodarsego 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Breno (draw refunded)
43%
Campodarsego (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Breno at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.35 · 17 matches

Campodarsego away — creates 1.20, concedes 0.99 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Breno attack 1.12 + Campodarsego defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.06

Campodarsego attack 1.20 + Breno defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Breno scores more
31%
level
28%
Campodarsego scores more
41%

Campodarsego at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Campodarsego will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Breno vs Campodarsego

Campodarsego beat Breno 3-1 in Serie D - Girone C on March 10, 2024.

The match was played at Campo Sportivo Comunale Tassara in Breno.