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Campodarsego vs Atletico Castegnato — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Campodarsego
Campodarsego
FT
2 – 3
HT: 2 – 1
Atletico Castegnato
Atletico Castegnato
N. Cocola 18'
L. Oneto 15' (pen)
P. Costanzo 86'
R. Rusconi 75' (pen)
A. Mboup 13' (OG)
1/14/2024Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 19Centro Sportivo Il Gabbiano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Campodarsego51%
×Draw25%
Atletico Castegnato24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Campodarsego
1.61
Atletico Castegnato
1.02

Campodarsego creates 58% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 17 away

creates per match

Campodarsego
1.52
Atletico Castegnato
1.06

allows per match

Campodarsego
0.98
Atletico Castegnato
1.71

finishing

Campodarsego+0.00on par
Atletico Castegnato+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Campodarsego ↓

Atletico Castegnato →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Campodarsego or draw
76%
Campodarsego or Atletico Castegnato
75%
Draw or Atletico Castegnato
49%

Winning margin

Campodarsego wins by 2+
27%
Atletico Castegnato wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Campodarsego 1+ goals
80%
Campodarsego 2+ goals
48%
Campodarsego 3+ goals
22%
Atletico Castegnato 1+ goals
64%
Atletico Castegnato 2+ goals
27%
Atletico Castegnato 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Campodarsego (draw refunded)
68%
Atletico Castegnato (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Campodarsego at home — creates 1.52, concedes 0.98 · 100 matches

Atletico Castegnato away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.71 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Campodarsego attack 1.52 + Atletico Castegnato defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.61

Atletico Castegnato attack 1.06 + Campodarsego defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Campodarsego scores more
51%
level
25%
Atletico Castegnato scores more
24%

Campodarsego at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Campodarsego will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'
A. MboupOwn goal
15'
L. OnetoPenalty
18'
N. Cocola
75'
R. RusconiPenalty
86'
P. Costanzo

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone C: Campodarsego 2–3 Atletico Castegnato

Atletico Castegnato beat Campodarsego 3-2 in Serie D - Girone C on January 14, 2024.

Goals: A. Mboup (13' o.g.), L. Oneto (15' pen), N. Cocola (18'), R. Rusconi (75' pen), P. Costanzo (86').

The match was played at Centro Sportivo Il Gabbiano in Campodarsego.