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Atletico Castegnato vs Campodarsego — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Atletico Castegnato
Atletico Castegnato
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Campodarsego
Campodarsego
9/17/2023Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 2Stadio Comunale Castegnato

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Atletico Castegnato29%
×Draw26%
Campodarsego45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atletico Castegnato
1.11
Campodarsego
1.46

Campodarsego creates 32% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 101 away

creates per match

Atletico Castegnato
1.24
Campodarsego
1.20

allows per match

Atletico Castegnato
1.71
Campodarsego
0.99

finishing

Atletico Castegnato+0.00on par
Campodarsego+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Castegnato ↓

Campodarsego →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Atletico Castegnato or draw
55%
Atletico Castegnato or Campodarsego
74%
Draw or Campodarsego
71%

Winning margin

Atletico Castegnato wins by 2+
11%
Campodarsego wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Atletico Castegnato 1+ goals
67%
Atletico Castegnato 2+ goals
30%
Atletico Castegnato 3+ goals
10%
Campodarsego 1+ goals
77%
Campodarsego 2+ goals
43%
Campodarsego 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Atletico Castegnato (draw refunded)
39%
Campodarsego (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Castegnato at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.71 · 17 matches

Campodarsego away — creates 1.20, concedes 0.99 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Castegnato attack 1.24 + Campodarsego defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.11

Campodarsego attack 1.20 + Atletico Castegnato defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Atletico Castegnato scores more
29%
level
26%
Campodarsego scores more
45%

Campodarsego at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Campodarsego will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone C: Atletico Castegnato 1–1 Campodarsego

Atletico Castegnato and Campodarsego drew 1-1 in Serie D - Girone C on September 17, 2023.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale Castegnato in Castegnato.