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Cambridge United vs Rotherham — League One 2018

Cambridge United
Cambridge United
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Rotherham
Rotherham
S. Nombe 90+2'
10/1/2024League OneLeague One · Round 9Cledara Abbey Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Cambridge United34%
×Draw28%
Rotherham38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cambridge United
1.11
Rotherham
1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 92 home / 99 away

creates per match

Cambridge United
1.08
Rotherham
1.15

allows per match

Cambridge United
1.22
Rotherham
1.15

finishing

Cambridge United+0.00on par
Rotherham+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cambridge United ↓

Rotherham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Cambridge United or draw
62%
Cambridge United or Rotherham
72%
Draw or Rotherham
66%

Winning margin

Cambridge United wins by 2+
14%
Rotherham wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Cambridge United 1+ goals
67%
Cambridge United 2+ goals
30%
Cambridge United 3+ goals
10%
Rotherham 1+ goals
70%
Rotherham 2+ goals
33%
Rotherham 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Cambridge United (draw refunded)
47%
Rotherham (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cambridge United at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.22 · 92 matches

Rotherham away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.15 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cambridge United attack 1.08 + Rotherham defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.11

Rotherham attack 1.15 + Cambridge United defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Cambridge United scores more
34%
level
28%
Rotherham scores more
38%

Rotherham at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Rotherham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7
J. PowellRotherhamRotherham · M
7.9

Match Events

32'
Paul Digby
64'
James Brophy
76'
Dan N'Lundulu
80'
R. Loft← D. Nlundulu
80'
E. Kachunga← B. Njoku
81'
C. Tiéhi← S. McWilliams
81'
S. Nombe← J. Hungbo
87'
J. Holmes← M. Wilks
87'
J. Hugill← J. Clarke-Harris
90+4'
Ryan Loft
90+4'
Jordan Hugill
90+2'
S. Nombe↳ J. Powell

Possession

42%Cambridge

Shots

10Cambridge

Pass accuracy

44%Cambridge

Statistics

CambridgeRotherham
Overview
42%Possession58%
10Total Shots8
7Corners2
13Fouls11
Shots
10Total Shots8
4On Target2
4Off Target4
2Blocked2
6Inside Box7
4Outside Box1
Passing
42%Possession58%
226Total Passes312
113Accurate Passes200
50%Pass Accuracy64%
Goalkeeping
1Saves5
Discipline
13Fouls11
4Yellow Cards1
1Offsides5

Match Recap: Cambridge United vs Rotherham

Rotherham beat Cambridge United 1-0 in League One on October 1, 2024.

Goals: S. Nombe (90+2').

Rotherham controlled possession (58%) and registered 8 shots to 10.

The match was played at Cledara Abbey Stadium in Cambridge, Cambridgeshire.