Cambridge United 0–1 Rotherham: Result & Stats

Cambridge United

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Rotherham

D. Barlaser 66'

12/18/2021

League One · Round 23Abbey Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Cambridge United34%

×Draw28%

Rotherham38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cambridge UnitedExpected goals in this matchRotherham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

1.19

Cambridge United

1.11

Rotherham

1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 92 home / 99 away

1.08

creates per match

1.15

1.22

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Cambridge United

1.08

Rotherham

1.15

allows per match

Cambridge United

1.22

Rotherham

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cambridge United+0.00on par

Rotherham+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cambridge United ↓

Rotherham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Cambridge United or draw

62%

Cambridge United or Rotherham

72%

Draw or Rotherham

66%

Winning margin

Cambridge United wins by 2+

14%

Rotherham wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Cambridge United 1+ goals

67%

Cambridge United 2+ goals

30%

Cambridge United 3+ goals

10%

Rotherham 1+ goals

70%

Rotherham 2+ goals

33%

Rotherham 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Cambridge United (draw refunded)

47%

Rotherham (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cambridge United at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.22 · 92 matches

Rotherham away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.15 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cambridge United attack 1.08 + Rotherham defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.11

Rotherham attack 1.15 + Cambridge United defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Cambridge United scores more

34%

level

28%

Rotherham scores more

38%

Rotherham at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Rotherham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

D. Barlaser

Rotherham · M

8.3

Match Events

45+3'

Sam Smith

62'

J. Lindsay← O. Rathbone

66'

D. Barlaser↳ M. Smith

69'

W. Harding← R. Edmonds-Green

82'

H. Knibbs← S. Smith

82'

J. Lankester← J. Brophy

87'

Michael Ihiekwe

90'

Joe Ironside

90+4'

W. Grigg← F. Ladapo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CambridgeRotherham

Overview

52%Possession48%

6Total Shots12

3Corners4

9Fouls16

Shots

6Total Shots12

1On Target6

4Off Target5

1Blocked1

3Inside Box8

3Outside Box4

Passing

52%Possession48%

370Total Passes338

245Accurate Passes225

66%Pass Accuracy67%

Goalkeeping

5Saves1

Discipline

9Fouls16

2Yellow Cards1

0Offsides1