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Cambridge United vs Port Vale — League Two 2018

Cambridge United
Cambridge United
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Port Vale
Port Vale
P. Mullin 90+5', 51', 3' (pen)
T. Robinson 18' (pen)
10/20/2020League TwoLeague Two · Round 7Abbey Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 88+ matches

Cambridge United40%
×Draw28%
Port Vale32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cambridge United
1.26
Port Vale
1.09

Cambridge United creates 16% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 118 away

creates per match

Cambridge United
1.35
Port Vale
1.16

allows per match

Cambridge United
1.03
Port Vale
1.17

finishing

Cambridge United+0.00on par
Port Vale+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cambridge United ↓

Port Vale →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Cambridge United or draw
68%
Cambridge United or Port Vale
72%
Draw or Port Vale
60%

Winning margin

Cambridge United wins by 2+
18%
Port Vale wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Cambridge United 1+ goals
72%
Cambridge United 2+ goals
36%
Cambridge United 3+ goals
13%
Port Vale 1+ goals
66%
Port Vale 2+ goals
30%
Port Vale 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Cambridge United (draw refunded)
56%
Port Vale (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cambridge United at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.03 · 88 matches

Port Vale away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.17 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cambridge United attack 1.35 + Port Vale defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.26

Port Vale attack 1.16 + Cambridge United defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Cambridge United scores more
40%
level
28%
Port Vale scores more
32%

Cambridge United at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Cambridge United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
P. MullinCambridge UnitedCambridge United · F
8.7

Match Events

3'
P. MullinPenalty
18'
T. RobinsonPenalty
51'
P. Mullin↳ H. Dunk
78'
A. May← H. Boateng
78'
L. Davies← J. Iredale
80'
D. Rodney← D. Whitehead
84'
Adam May
85'
J. Ironside← W. Hoolahan
85'
T. Pope← C. Montaño
90+5'
P. Mullin

Possession

45%Cambridge

Shots

10Cambridge

Pass accuracy

48%Cambridge

Statistics

CambridgePort
Overview
45%Possession55%
10Total Shots11
5Corners5
11Fouls7
Shots
10Total Shots11
3On Target2
5Off Target3
2Blocked6
10Inside Box6
0Outside Box5
Passing
45%Possession55%
370Total Passes453
228Accurate Passes305
62%Pass Accuracy67%
Goalkeeping
1Saves0
Discipline
11Fouls7
1Yellow Cards0
0Offsides3

League Two: Cambridge United 3–1 Port Vale

Cambridge United beat Port Vale 3-1 in League Two on October 20, 2020.

Goals: P. Mullin (3' pen, 51', 90+5'), T. Robinson (18' pen).

Port Vale controlled possession (55%) and registered 11 shots to 10.

The match was played at Abbey Stadium in Cambridge, Cambridgeshire.