Cambridge United 1–0 Port Vale: Result & Stats

Cambridge United

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Port Vale

D. Amoo 19'

2/9/2019

League Two · Round 32Abbey Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 88+ matches

Cambridge United40%

×Draw28%

Port Vale32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cambridge UnitedExpected goals in this matchPort Vale

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.26

1.09

Cambridge United

1.26

Port Vale

1.09

Cambridge United creates 16% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 118 away

1.35

creates per match

1.16

1.03

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Cambridge United

1.35

Port Vale

1.16

allows per match

Cambridge United

1.03

Port Vale

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cambridge United+0.00on par

Port Vale+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cambridge United ↓

Port Vale →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Cambridge United or draw

68%

Cambridge United or Port Vale

72%

Draw or Port Vale

60%

Winning margin

Cambridge United wins by 2+

18%

Port Vale wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Cambridge United 1+ goals

72%

Cambridge United 2+ goals

36%

Cambridge United 3+ goals

13%

Port Vale 1+ goals

66%

Port Vale 2+ goals

30%

Port Vale 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Cambridge United (draw refunded)

56%

Port Vale (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cambridge United at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.03 · 88 matches

Port Vale away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.17 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cambridge United attack 1.35 + Port Vale defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.26

Port Vale attack 1.16 + Cambridge United defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Cambridge United scores more

40%

level

28%

Port Vale scores more

32%

Cambridge United at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Cambridge United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'

32'

60'

66'

66'

R. Lambe← R. Hepburn-Murphy

67'

A. Jones← J. Ibehre

71'

C. Montaño← M. Harris

80'

J. Doyle-Hayes← D. Amoo

86'

B. Whitfield← J. Gibbons

90'

Nathan Smith

Cambridge

Port

1

13

15

23

2

▼

14

6

4

11

9

19

▼

13

5

3

4

6

2

14

▼

Ibehre

7

⚽

▼

Amoo

20

Brown

18

Maris

9

▼

Hepburn-M

Manager: C. Calderwood

66'▲R. Lambe←▼R. Hepburn-Murphy

67'▲A. Jones←▼J. Ibehre

80'▲J. Doyle-Hayes←▼D. Amoo

Cambridge United substitutes

19Lambe26Jones28Doyle-Hayes11Dunk16Darling27Coulson44Pilkington

Manager: J. Askey

71'▲C. Montaño←▼M. Harris

86'▲B. Whitfield←▼J. Gibbons

Port Vale substitutes

3Montaño24Whitfield7Worrall29Turner12Hornby5Legge22Conlon

Match Recap: Cambridge United vs Port Vale

Cambridge United beat Port Vale 1-0 in League Two on February 9, 2019.

Goals: D. Amoo (19').

The match was played at Abbey Stadium in Cambridge.

Cambridge United vs Port Vale — League Two 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Cambridge United vs Port Vale